My family has been looknig forward to returning to Aruba - our flight leaves tomorrow (Sat Nov 20, 2010) morning ... until we saw the 10 day weather forecast ... and the satellite imagery ... and looked at webcams of empty beaches and cloud filled skies... and now we have to make a quick decision and I'm looking for saged advice...

I should explain that we have something of a travel jinx. Some years ago we went to Disney for Chirstmas .... it was Orlando's first white Christmas. So we figured it couldn't happen twice and we went again... it snowed again. We stopped going.

We went to Bermuda for Halloween instead. Hurricane Bob passed over the island, then backed up over it again, and then moved on. (5 days trapped indoors watching the palm trees go sideways as the wind howled.)

So we decided east coast weather was unreliable and went to Hawaii instead. Waikiki Beach. I don't know why people go to Hawaii, it averaged 45F (10C), drizzle alternating with rain, winds from the west at 20-30mph the entire week, its something they don't advertise called the "Pineapple Express".

We had stopped taking vacations for a decade or more until we went to Aruba in the spring of 2009. There were passing clouds, and a sudden 10 minute drenching during dinner outdoors at Madame Jeanette's, but other than that the weather was great. So we decided to book a return trip... with cancel for any cause insurance.

So... any informed guesses about the upcoming weather ? Should we cancel the upcoming week and book something another time ? We go for the beach and water, etc. rather than shopping or casinos.

poly, been there and done that. froze in orlando at least twice (and so did the orange crop), had the worst hail storm on record in nyc, rained for 5 days in toronto, 107 degrees in dakar in november (avg temp in november is 75-80 degrees) hottest april in vegas (heat stroke), need i go on?

unfortunately, the weather is screwed up everywhere. we had a tornado in the baltimore area the other day that caused a lot of damage and a few injuries. almost totally unheard of here and an earthquake that people actually felt a few months ago.

as you know, it is rainy season in aruba. that being said, i have the most accurate link for aruban weather Home and it looks like scattered thunder showers which is normal for nov-jan. i would say, the odds are in your favor for at least several good days.

let us know what you decide to do.

sherry -
It sounds like you travel a lot. I should have made it more clear... those were the only vacations we've taken. The days in Aruba in 2009 were the only ones we didn't need heavy weather gear to go outside.

The weather site you linked is a peculiar mix. Some of the content is current, but the current weather bulletin is in the Aruban language, some content is from a hurrcane at the end of October, and the climate and rainfall data is for 1971 through 2000. The report indicating that both the developed La Nina weather pattern and the unusually high sea surface temperatures in the eastern carribean are expected to contribute to an extraordinarily wet rainy season seems to explain the sattelite imagery. It just looks like the eastern carribean continues to pump up moisture that meets cool air aloft, pushes west, and rains on Aruba.

Our kids are adults now, one (28) bringing her fiancee, etc. The one that went to MIT has been scanning the twitter feeds of the past few days and the tweets are pretty uniform that the weather in Aruba has been a wash-out this week. Looking more carefully at the posts in this forum suggests that the week from Nov 6-13 was a wash out. Further back is a long litany of woe starting in September with only one reasonably pleasant week sometime in October.

All in all we're a bit spooked. Unless there's more to hope for than the chance that there might be a nice afternoon at some point, I think we're
going to cancel the trip. If we went and sat in a hotel room for another week, we'd only add Aruba to the list of places we'll never go to again.

actually, i don't travel that often, i just get bad weather everywhere but aruba, lol. my last two trips to atlantic city were a quick drive home because baltimore got two of the 3 major blizzards of the past winter, lol.

unfortunately, no matter where you go, no one can totally predict the weather. our rain for yesterday became breezy and sunny here in maryland. go figure. however, i am sure that if i had planned a day outside instead of a day visiting a sick friend, it would have rained all day.

it would be a shame if you cross each place you have had weird or bad weather off of your list of places to visit. maybe you need to really research the weather systems for an area before you plan. it hasn't always helped us as you could see by my list of weather disasters but honestly, if i plan atlantic city in december or february i am planning at a bad time, which i did. if you plan aruba for oct-january, you are in rainy season and if it is a big cape verde hurricane season you can assume the rains will increase in september also. any time from november until january or february, you can assume orlando could have cool or cold weather. we had it there at halloween time and january.

the problem with vacations is it is hard to match the time off with the weather conditions for the place you want to go. plus with the weird weather everywhere, planning according to weather is impossible. aruba is a desert island but certainly not this year.

btw, to show how stupid we are, we have again decided on atlantic city in a few weeks. wonder if it will be the first blizzard of the season again, lol.

Perhaps you have made your decision to cancel. Were it I------I would definitely 'chance' it and go to Aruba tomorrow. I write this after looking at long-range weather reports for Aruba, and speaking with friends who are there now. Weather reports in Aruba always mention cloudy weather. Last year while there for a month it was lovely every day, but the weather reports always mentioned clouds. Bottom line----go for it!!!!!

__________________

Yea...I'm with Mary...Go for it.

__________________
I lead with my Heart and my Body follows

Dan & Sweet Georgene

sherry and poly... please be so kind as to not travel to Aruba between January 29th and February 26th, 2011!!

__________________

We just returned last Sunday and prior to our departure, it called for thunderstorms. NOT SO! We had one full afternoon of scattered rain and an hour of rain one morning. Nothing that prevented me returning relaxed and tanned!

I was talking to a local one day who said he slept all day because of the rain. What rain? I laid in the sun all day! Turns out it did rain all day on the other side of the island but we had clear sunny skies. So, you never know!

I am not sure if the water has returned to normal yet but when we were there it was very rough and no one could go in. Those who dared to venture in, ended up cut and in the hospital. Thanks to Hurricane Thomas. I cried when I saw the mess of the beaches. Huts were burried in waves and palm trees lost. Very sad but teams of people where on clean-up duty and they where doing their very best to save and clean what they could.

Only a direct hurricane hit would make me switch my travels to Aruba. A little rain, thunder or big waves can't stop me from visiting the only island I love! I could go with you as your escort and hold an umbrella over your head if you feel like walking in a rain shower. I can wipe rain drops off of your lounger and I'm even willing to fetch you a cocktail from the bar. YES, I am that desperate to get back LOL

Let us know what you decide! Looks like you have to decide really quick! Happy travels and I wish you warm sunny skies wherever you land!

Cath

Very well said Cathy!!!

__________________

Dont let the weather reports scare you. Unless there is another one of those low pressure areas over Venezuala that keeps the wind from blowing.
We also have had a few bad trips. Went to London August of 1990. Were told to expect a high of 70f and be sure to take a rain jacket. Temperature was 99f the first 3 days and it had not rained in 2 months. It was the hottest weather they had since 1911. Nothing is air conditioned and you cant get ice for your drinks. Went to Las Vegas in 2002 and had 3 days of hard rain. Flooding in the streets and the hotel we were in was leaking like a sieve. Went to Maui 4 days and Kauai 4 days in April 1995 and rained all 4 days on Kauai. If you travel much, you will run into unusual weather patterns. Just dont let it get you down.

No weather report is going to stop me from making the annual trip to Aruba.

I also say Go For It!!!!

T

__________________
Next Aruba Trip!!!
November 24th to December 4th 2011
Let the countdown begin!

Well said!

__________________
John L

I will not bash Aruba.

Saying that, here's our story...the weather has been strange.
I just DO NOT understand.
We have gone every year since 1988 for one to three weeks...and 2010 weather was poor in September from 9/11 to 10/2...worst weather in all those years. This year, 9/11 to 10/2.

We have lived now in east-central Florida for 8 years. Last winter, we had our coldest winter in all 8 years. Everything is relative since we came from upstate New York, but I was FREEZING from Christmas to St. Patrick's Day.

One could believe that things are changing. In Florida in 2010, we have had 1 or 2 days of rain since September 30th. It is VERY dry. It is good weather for tourists with warm days and cool nights. Most people would pray for this kind of weather. We enjoy it, but it is not so good overall as we NEED rain.

The weather pattern in Aruba is very good...and usually dry. Hope the wet weather does NOT continue for late year visitors!